U.S. government reopening is now largely priced in, with Wednesday’s House vote to restore funding through January acting as a formality. That matters now because markets can pivot from shutdown risk to tech sector wobble, a torrent of delayed economic releases and a heavy U.S. Treasury schedule. In the near term traders will watch bond auctions and Fed speeches for repricing. Over the long term the market will test whether Europe can sustain 2025 style gains as its tech ecosystem grows. The story plays across regions, from Wall Street to Tokyo and euro zone equity flows, and echoes themes seen earlier this year when momentum carried markets higher.
Opening trade setup
Shutdown relief removes a headline risk and frees attention for data and policy
The House is expected to pass a bill to restore funding through January. Markets had already priced a reopening, so the vote should not spark a big move on its own. Instead traders can refocus on a backlog of economic prints delayed by the shutdown, and a full slate of central bank and Treasury speakers due on Wednesday.
That creates a clear short term test. Treasury will sell $42 billion of 10 year notes later in the day. Demand at that auction will matter for yields and for risk appetite in equities. At the same time Fed officials are on the calendar, including Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran. Their comments may influence expectations about the pace of policy easing, particularly after softer payroll reads have kept cuts on the table.
Tech turbulence and earnings watch
Data center mishaps and strategic funding moves weigh on chip and cloud stocks
Technology underperformed on Tuesday. Cloud provider CoreWeave dropped after data center issues, and market moves accelerated when SoftBank Group Corp (TYO:9984) sold part of its stake in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The sale knocked Nvidia lower and highlighted the funding demands behind big AI bets, including follow on commitments to OpenAI and an expected acquisition spree.
Elsewhere, General Motors (NYSE:GM) has asked many suppliers to remove China sourced parts from their supply chains. That action underlines the continued pressure of geopolitical forces on manufacturing and could ripple through supplier stocks and equipment demand.
Corporate earnings to watch this session include Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) and TransDigm (NYSE:TDG). Cisco’s results will offer insight into enterprise IT spending and networking demand. TransDigm will provide a view on aerospace components and the health of airline supply chains. Both reports may reinforce or weaken the recent momentum trade that has been so dominant in 2025.
Macro indicators and market mechanics
Jobs data, bond auctions and Fed commentary will shape near term rate expectations
Preliminary ADP payrolls suggested private sector employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week through October. That tally keeps some expectation of Fed easing alive. Futures still attach a roughly two thirds probability to another cut by December. However, several Fed officials express caution, and their speeches could temper market pricing.
With Treasury markets reopening after the holiday, yields should be sensitive to auction results and to comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at a Fed Treasury conference. Investors will also track the 10 year note sale closely because it sets a benchmark for global fixed income and risk asset valuations.
Currency moves and global equity flows
Yen weakness, soft dollar moves and euro zone equity gains set a cross market tone
Japan’s yen slid to about 154.9 per dollar after new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged caution on Bank of Japan rate hikes. Comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama tried to cool the move by warning about the risks of one sided and rapid currency moves. Traders expect intervention talk to rise if the yen approaches 160, but for now the move injects volatility into Asian trading hours.
The dollar was broadly flat versus the euro and other majors, while the Swiss franc continued to strengthen amid reports that U.S. tariffs on Swiss imports could be cut to 15% from 39%. That development, if confirmed, would lift the franc and alter trade and capital flows between the United States and Europe.
European equities have outperformed this year in dollar terms. The STOXX 600 looks set to end the year with gains more than twice those of the S&P 500. Currency moves have boosted reported returns, and the longer test for Europe will be whether it sustains investment in advanced tech and builds the ecosystem needed to deliver repeatable gains. BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and other global allocators are watching for deeper tech momentum inside the euro zone.
Commodities and structural signals
IEA outlook and capital flows remind markets that energy demand remains central
The International Energy Agency published an outlook that signals oil demand may continue to rise into 2050. That marks a change from prior reports and serves as a reminder of how dominant oil remains in the global economy. Energy markets will react to both the IEA signal and to near term economic indicators that influence demand forecasts.
Finally, strategic funding needs at large conglomerates are moving markets. SoftBank has disclosed multi billion dollar commitments, including a major follow on for OpenAI and acquisitions such as Ampere and ABB’s robotics unit. Those moves show how private investments and large cap portfolio decisions can feed volatility across tech and chip sectors.
Positioning for the session looks set to favour selective risk taking. Traders will parse Treasury auction results, Fed commentary, and a package of corporate reports for fresh direction. In addition, currency flows and earnings outcomes in tech and industrials will determine whether momentum continues to lead markets higher or whether pockets of stress widen. Expect trading to be data driven and event focused as attention moves away from shutdown headlines and onto the mechanics of policy, earnings and funding.
