Newmont’s recent gains are the market story today. NYSE:NEM is up about 26% over three months as GOLD hit record highs, and miners rallied on the news. In the short term, firmer gold prices are driving share-price momentum. In the longer run, capital spending trends, free cash flow and valuations will determine sustainability. This matters globally: US and Canadian miners saw immediate upside, Europe and Asia tracked higher gold futures, and emerging-market projects face funding pressure if prices cool. Compared with recent cycles, the gold move is faster and more concentrated. The timing matters because CPI eased to 2.6% in December, boosting expectations for Fed rate relief by midyear and lifting non-yielding assets.
Gold price, CPI and the market backdrop
Gold futures are the proximate driver. Continuous futures rose 0.9% to $4,642.20 an ounce in the latest session. That jump pushed major producers higher in pre-market trading, with Newmont (NYSE:NEM) and Barrick (NYSE:GOLD) up roughly 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Macro data amplified the move. The December CPI print at 2.6% lowered near-term inflation risk and increased expectations for Federal Reserve easing by midyear. Those expectations pushed flows back into non-yielding stores of value and into dividend-paying miners. US equities have also enjoyed broad strength: market commentators noted 2025 marked a second consecutive year of double-digit gains, supporting risk appetite for cyclical names.
Newmont’s momentum, cash flow and capital spending
Newmont (NYSE:NEM) is the clearest beneficiary. The stock is up about 26% over three months. Company-level drivers include lower capital spending and rising free cash flow. In Q3, Newmont cut capital expenditures by 17%, producing record free cash flow that more than doubled to $1.6 billion. Brokers’ consensus tilts positive: the dataset lists Newmont’s average brokerage recommendation as a Buy.
Those figures matter because they show operating leverage to higher metal prices. Reduced capex (‑17% in Q3) translated into a substantial rise in distributable cash. Investors watching valuation multiples will compare those cash-generation metrics with current market caps and P/E ratios to assess upside scope.
Peer dynamics: Barrick, Agnico Eagle and valuation debate
Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) rallied in step with Newmont, rising roughly 1.6% pre-market on the same session when gold hit $4,642.20. That move narrowed some valuation gaps among the majors but left analysts debating individual fundamentals.
Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM) attracted two distinct takes in recent coverage. One note flagged valuation and return-on-equity concerns; another argued AEM looks undervalued on a low P/E amid the gold rally. Quantitatively, the dataset records two articles on AEM versus four items mentioning Newmont, showing how attention concentrates on the largest producers while smaller majors face split views. Investors will scrutinize metrics such as P/E, ROE and cash flow per share when ranking names within the sector.
Industrial signal: Linde’s Q4 mention and broader equity momentum
Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) appeared in commentary tied to broader Q4 dynamics. A Mar Vista letter cited US equities’ strong momentum in 2025 and noted the market’s rapid recovery. While Linde’s specific Q4 drag was the headline, the larger point is rotation and risk appetite across industrials and resources. The letter emphasised that US equities registered a second consecutive year of double-digit gains, a quantitative backdrop that supported commodity and industrial stocks.
That cross-market strength matters for miners because it determines available risk capital. When large-cap industrials and staples pause or disappoint, money can shift into resource stocks where a clear commodity story — such as gold at $4,600+/oz — offers a defined thematic trade.
Scenarios, investor focus and what to watch next
Use metrics to track the story rather than headlines. Key numbers to monitor: the gold futures level ($4,642.20/oz in the latest print), Newmont’s free cash flow ($1.6bn) and its capex trend (down 17% in Q3). Also watch short-term price moves: Newmont’s 26% three‑month gain and pre-market moves of 1.4%–1.6% for majors reflect immediate sentiment.
Near-term, the interplay between CPI (2.6% in December) and Fed rate expectations will remain crucial. If markets price earlier or larger rate cuts, non-yielding assets like gold typically rally, which lifts miners’ equities and cash-flow multiples. Conversely, if inflation reaccelerates above measured expectations, gold’s safe-haven appeal could ebb and volatility would rise.
Finally, keep an eye on company-level funding and cost metrics. Newmont’s cut to capex and record free cash flow are quantifiable strengths. For peers such as Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM) and Barrick (NYSE:GOLD), compare P/E, ROE and free-cash-flow trends to determine which companies can sustain dividends and project funding if prices retrace. That comparative analysis — using hard numbers rather than headlines — will best reveal whether the current rally reflects a durable re-rating or a shorter-term revaluation tied purely to macro expectations.
