US-China export controls escalate market fears. U.S. reports that Washington is considering broad curbs on exports to China pushed U.S. stocks lower and amplified concern over global trade frictions. In the short term this is driving volatility in tech names and pressuring risk assets. Over the longer term it raises questions about supply chains and capital flows across the United States, Europe, and Asia. The move is noticeable against past trade disputes, including 2018 tariff rounds, when policy moves reshaped investment patterns. This matters now because senior U.S. and Chinese envoys are headed to Malaysia for talks and major central bank guidance and earnings arrive this week.

Market open snapshot

Equities tread water as trade headlines and earnings collide

U.S. stocks slipped on Wednesday as the Reuters report on potential U.S. export curbs to China deepened trade concerns. The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent, the Nasdaq lost 0.9 percent and the Dow fell 0.7 percent. All three indexes now sit near flat for the month after recent gains. Global equity action was mixed. Hong Kong tech fell 1.4 percent while the UK FTSE 100 gained 1.1 percent in its best day since July. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.4 percent.

Corporate results added to the mood. Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) plunged 10 percent after an earnings miss and a Brazil tax-related charge. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) slipped in after-hours trade despite reporting record third quarter revenue and profit that came in lighter than hoped. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) faced a fresh complaint with EU antitrust regulators that weighed on its shares. Those moves show how single-company headlines can still sway broader indices, especially with many big names reporting this month.

Fixed income and inflation outlook

Treasury yields fall as markets take a labour-first Fed message

Treasuries held steady to lower even as stocks fell and credit spreads remained tight. Yields slipped 1 to 2 basis points with the 10-year note trading below 4 percent and the two-year at its lowest since August 2022. The decline reflects investor acceptance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s emphasis on employment risks over inflation risks.

That dynamic could create a feedback loop. Labour market concerns depress yields, which can raise fears of slowing growth and keep yields lower. Investors emerge from a three-week government shutdown window still focused on the same inputs. A key test arrives on Friday when the September consumer price index is due. Consensus expects core annual inflation around 3.1 percent, substantially above the Fed’s 2 percent goal. Market pricing suggests traders may shrug at a firm print because they are more attuned to labour data and Fed rhetoric than headline inflation right now.

Commodities and FX

Safe havens wobble as metals diverge and oil jumps

Gold dropped about 2 percent before recovering, while palladium and platinum rallied around 5 percent each. Oil spiked roughly 2 percent on a reported U.S. inventory drawdown. Currency moves were muted for major pairs. G10 foreign exchange largely stayed in tight ranges, though the Argentina peso gained about 1 percent from a record low and then eased back.

Commodities are reacting to both supply signals and risk sentiment. Higher oil and industrial metal moves can reflect geopolitical supply concerns and routine inventory changes. Traders will watch whether metal and energy strength persists through the week as earnings and policy statements arrive.

Big tech, legal clouds and earnings cadence

Earnings season ramps up as legal and tax items complicate beats

Corporate reporting is intensifying. Around 90 S&P 500 companies reported this week, with roughly 180 scheduled for next week. So far, about 87 percent of reporters have posted earnings beats, well above the 30-year average near 67 percent. That strong rate supports equity valuations, but big misses still move markets. Netflix’s setback is a reminder that one large name can pull indices lower even when the broader earnings backdrop looks healthy.

Legal and tax items add noise. Netflix recorded a $619 million charge tied to a Brazilian tax dispute. Apple faces renewed EU scrutiny over App Store terms after being fined earlier in the year. Those costs are not crippling on their own, but they complicate outlook statements and investor attention. In addition, M&A talk, cloud spending, and AI investments remain structural drivers to watch as companies detail capital allocation plans.

Key events to watch today

Economic calendar and corporate catalysts that could move markets

Traders will parse a busy slate for fresh directional cues. Taiwan will release September industrial production data. South Korea will announce an interest rate decision. Euro zone consumer confidence for October is due as a flash read. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak. Canada issues August retail sales and the U.S. runs a $26 billion 5-year Treasury auction of TIPS.

On the earnings front, investors will get results from names including T-Mobile, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Blackstone (NYSE:BX) and Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON). Those reports will add granularity on demand trends across tech, industrials and services. Collectively, the calendar combines policy commentary, cross-border trade dialogue and company-specific news. Any of those threads could amplify market moves given current sentiment.

In short, markets open with trade policy headlines at the top of the tape, bonds reflecting a labour-first Fed narrative, and corporate earnings supplying fresh data points. Risk appetite will likely be sensitive to further news on export controls and to incoming U.S. inflation readings. For participants focused on regional implications, the story varies by market: U.S. equities watch earnings and Fed cues; Europe follows ECB messaging and consumer confidence; Asia watches trade talks and rate decisions. Keep an eye on headline developments for directional shifts during the trading day.