U.S. government reopening shifts market focus to delayed economic data. Official releases that were frozen during the six week shutdown will reappear on trading calendars next week, and markets must weigh fresh payroll and inflation numbers that could alter the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. In the short term traders will react to data surprises, Treasury supply and earnings headlines. In the longer term markets will reprice the path of policy and growth if this batch confirms cooling or resilience. Globally the news matters to Europe by influencing yields and the euro, to Asia through currency and equity flows, and to emerging markets via commodity and dollar moves. The timing is urgent because pricing for December has swung to roughly even odds for a Fed cut, making each print market moving.
Reopening restores data flow and raises the stakes for the Fed
The return of the U.S. government after the longest shutdown in history means a flood of delayed economic releases will hit markets. The September national payrolls report may arrive as soon as next week, but doubts remain about whether some October jobs and inflation numbers will ever be released because of data collection problems. That uncertainty has elevated the value of each available datapoint.
Market pricing now treats a December Federal Reserve rate cut as about a coin toss. Fed futures show roughly 50 percent odds of easing, and regional Fed officials on the policy committee have urged caution until the fog of missing data clears. Boston Fed boss Susan Collins said she would be hesitant to ease policy absent clear labor market deterioration, especially given the limited inflation data from the shutdown.
That stance explains why Treasury notes and yields have been relatively subdued even after a lackluster 10 year auction. Investors want better visibility before committing to a views on rate trajectories. In addition, the Treasury plans to sell $25 billion of 30 year bonds this week, a regular funding task that now plays against the background of heavy supply and subdued demand in some auctions.
Rates, oil and FX provide cross currents for traders
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged keeping auction sizes unchanged for the next several quarters and suggested easing supplementary leverage ratios that discourage banks from holding Treasuries. That comment is notable because regulatory nudges can change dealer capacity to absorb long dated supply and pressure yields.
Oil prices moved lower as both OPEC and the International Energy Agency signaled a surplus in global supplies through next year. The sharp retreat in crude helped temper yields and relieved one source of inflation concern. In addition, the dollar weakened against the euro and China’s yuan, a move that reflects the interplay of rate expectations and commodity prices.
Japan’s yen drew official attention after touching a record low against the euro. Intervention worries briefly lifted the yen from nine month lows when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned the Bank of Japan not to lift rates too quickly. Still, broader yen weakness was evident as currency markets reacted to Japan’s looser fiscal and monetary leanings.
Equities steady but tech rotation keeps markets selective
U.S. stocks held steady with a rotation in sector leadership. The Dow Jones Industrials hit a new record while the Nasdaq closed lower. Global equities were more buoyant and MSCI’s all country index reached a fresh high. That calm comes despite a turbulent 2025 politically and on trade policy, and it reflects resilient second half growth rates that are running above 3 percent annualized for the U.S. and the global economy.
Within tech there were clear winners and laggards. Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD surged about 9 percent after unveiling an ambitious $100 billion data center revenue target. IBM NYSE:IBM touched a new record on news of progress in quantum computing. Conversely Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN, Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA, Palantir NYSE:PLTR and Oracle NYSE:ORCL all slipped back amid valuation concerns. Those moves show investors rewarding standout strategic news while penalizing expensive or uncertain stories.
Chinese stocks outperformed ahead of major economic releases and a positive earnings beat from Tencent HKEX:0700 helped sentiment. The yuan firmed to its best levels since October and that underpinned a regional equity bid as investors assessed growth prospects in China against global headwinds.
Event calendar and what to watch in today’s session
Market participants will monitor speeches from regional Fed presidents including St. Louis Fed chief Alberto Musalem, Cleveland Fed head Beth Hammack and San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly. European Central Bank board member Sharon Donnery and ECB chief supervisor Claudia Buch are also due to speak. Their remarks could influence euro area and global rate expectations.
Corporate earnings will add another layer of attention. Walt Disney NYSE:DIS and Applied Materials NASDAQ:AMAT report, giving investors fresh profit signals in media and semiconductor equipment. Those releases may help explain recent sector flows and clarify whether tech strength is broad based or concentrated in a few firms with eye catching targets and breakthroughs.
Finally, Norges Bank Investment Management CEO Nicolai Tangen addresses the Economic Club of New York. Comments from large institutional managers and central bank officials will be parsed for views on duration, equity allocations and currency positioning as markets set portfolios for year end.
Outlook for the session
Traders enter the session with a few clear facts. The government reopening restores suppressed supply of data and makes upcoming releases unusually consequential. Fed officials are signaling a cautious approach which keeps a December cut uncertain. Oil surplus calls and sovereign funding plans add supply side considerations for rates and currency markets.
Expect price action that rewards clarity and punishes surprises. A stronger than anticipated payroll or inflation print would reduce odds of a Fed cut and push yields modestly higher. A weak print could swing sentiment toward easing and provide further support for risk assets. Meanwhile corporate results and central bank commentary will create opportunities for rotation as investors sort winners from laggards.
Markets have shown an ability to absorb shocks this year without breaking, but the return of data will test that resilience in the coming sessions. Traders who can quickly digest new information will set the tone for how the year ends for equities, rates and currencies.
