Earnings and buybacks drive oil majors’ near-term narrative. Morgan Stanley trimmed ConocoPhillips’ price target to $122 from $123 while keeping an Overweight call. Chevron’s upcoming Q3 print and investor day put buybacks and guidance under the microscope. Exxon Mobil is pushing production and digital tools as it leans into long-term growth. Short-term this matters for quarter-to-quarter returns and buyback signaling. Longer-term it reveals capital allocation bets by supermajors across the US, Europe and Asia. Compared with past cycles, firms are increasing production despite lower prices, testing whether history repeats or operating discipline holds.

Today matters because several large-cap results and analyst notes compress near-term risk and opportunity into a narrow window. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) faces analyst skepticism ahead of its report after Morgan Stanley adjusted a target and flagged cash flow dynamics. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) prints Q3 results with buybacks likely the focal point. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) headlines talk about growth choices that will shape 2026 capital plans. Investors must parse earnings beats versus strategic spend. This week will set tone for energy allocation into year-end.

Big three headlines

Morgan Stanley reduced its price objective on ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) to $122 from $123 while retaining an Overweight rating and expecting clean Q3 operational updates. That small cut underlines attention to cash flow and capital return mechanics ahead of the print. Analysts also note Conoco does not have the mixed drivers that typically produce an earnings beat.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) reports Q3 results on Friday with Street estimates near $1.71 of EPS versus $2.51 a year ago. The report and an upcoming investor day will put share repurchases and 2026 guidance in focus. Markets are watching whether management signals a resumption or acceleration of buybacks when oil price volatility eases.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) remains a center of gravity for the sector. Coverage highlights include higher production pushes and the use of AI and digital twins by partners to compress project cycles. That trend matters globally as it affects capex timing in North America, the Gulf, and international projects in Kazakhstan and Malaysia.

Sector pulse

Three themes recur across recent releases: capital allocation, production choices, and technical modernization. Supermajors are betting on long-term oil demand and stepping up production despite softer prices. That contrasts with past cycles where companies prioritized discipline after price drops. Midstream and service firms are showing steadier cash flows.

DT Midstream (NYSE:DTM) posted net income of $115 million, or $1.13 per diluted share, and raised adjusted EBITDA guidance after a quarter with $288 million of Adjusted EBITDA. That underlines resilience in fee-based cash flows versus commodity-exposed E&P names.

On the services side, SLB (NYSE:SLB) won two EPC contracts for deepwater projects offshore Malaysia through its OneSubsea JV. The award signals continued project sanctioning in Southeast Asia and steady demand for subsea equipment. HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) surprised positively: earnings beat by 25.77% and revenue beat by 3.33% for Q3, showing downstream margin strength in select refining corridors.

Winners & laggards

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) looks like a value candidate but with near-term execution risk. The Morgan Stanley tweak to a $122 target and analyst commentary about a likely earnings decline suggests upside is conditional on cash flow clarity and commodity realization. Opportunity: attractive valuation if Q3 confirms operational steadiness. Risk: weaker commodity pricing or capex surprises.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is in a holding pattern. Underperformance versus the market reflects lower near-term EPS expectations. Buybacks could be the catalyst. If management signals clear repurchase intent or raises leverage thresholds at the investor day, sentiment could swing.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is the bold growth play. Management is increasing production and funding large projects. That raises questions about timing and cyclical exposure but also positions the company to capture higher long-run demand, especially in LNG and heavy oil basins.

DT Midstream (NYSE:DTM) and HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) are winners this quarter. DTM’s $1.13 EPS and raised EBITDA guidance point to stable cash distribution capability. DINO’s 25.77% EPS beat shows downstream leverage working in its favor.

SLB (NYSE:SLB) benefits from an EPC backlog and a Citi lift to a $47 price target based on improving offshore demand. That makes SLB a play on project restart and subsea equipment cycles.

What smart money is watching next

• Q3 results and management commentary from ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) this week for buyback signals and capex pacing.
• DT Midstream’s (NYSE:DTM) revised guidance trajectory and distribution intent following a $288 million Adjusted EBITDA quarter.
• Project awards and EPC contract flows for SLB (NYSE:SLB) and service peers as a proxy for offshore sanctioning and global capex demand.

Closing take-away

Short-term earnings and buyback signals will set sentiment, but capital-allocation choices by the majors will determine who wins over the next 12–24 months. Watch Q3 commentary closely for shifts in repurchase cadence and project timing.