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Caterpillar, Boeing, ADP and Flowserve: Generators, 777X Charges and Payroll Guidance Recast the Industrials Newsflow

Caterpillar, Boeing, ADP and Flowserve drive the day’s headlines

The latest results show clear winners and clear warnings. Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) reported strong third-quarter revenue and a record backlog tied to power equipment for AI data centers and industrial projects, sending shares up more than 12% on the day and lifting its profile beyond traditional construction demand. Boeing (NYSE:BA) posted a third-quarter loss driven by a $4.9 billion charge tied to 777X certification delays and pushed first deliveries to 2027, producing a $5.4 billion headline loss and renewed focus on program execution. Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) beat on Q3 results but saw its shares fall about 5.3% after guidance disappointed, even as it closed the Pequity acquisition to expand compensation software. Flowserve (NYSE:FLS) posted an earnings beat, margin expansion, and a guidance lift, triggering an almost 30% intraday rally. These data points matter now because quarterly results are re-pricing companies for a lower-for-longer rate environment, higher tariff bills, and re-oriented end markets such as data centers and hydrogen where capital spending is accelerating globally.

Headlines: what moved markets and why it matters

Caterpillar reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $4.95 on revenue of roughly $17.6 billion and flagged a growing role for power systems tied to data-center builds. Management now projects larger tariff impacts for Q4 — $650 million to $800 million — which compresses near-term margins but underlines the durability of demand for on-site power. Meanwhile, Boeing’s Q3 revenue of $23.27 billion beat estimates, but the company took a $4.9 billion charge on its 777X delays and pushed first delivery to early 2027. That one-time hit drove a wider GAAP loss and kept investor attention on certification timelines and cash flow milestones.

In services and software, ADP’s Q1 fiscal 2026 results beat across the board, yet revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter undershot expectations, weighing on the stock. The company announced the acquisition of Pequity to add compensation-management capabilities for mid-size and multinational clients, reinforcing its product-led growth strategy. Flowserve’s third-quarter report featured a margin jump to mid-to-high single digits on improving aftermarket and nuclear demand, and management raised its full-year outlook—fuel that sent shares higher.

Sector pulse: emerging themes shaping performance

Three structural themes are now clear. First, data-center and mission-critical power demand is re-rating several industrial names. Caterpillar’s record backlog and Bloom Energy’s (NYSE:BE) 57% year-over-year revenue jump to about $519 million show a bifurcation: traditional construction demand remains cyclical, while AI-related infrastructure spending is durable and global, lifting North America and APAC orders.

Second, program and supply-chain execution drive outsized volatility. Boeing’s 777X charge is an acute reminder that long-lead aerospace programs still carry certification, regulatory and cost risks that directly hit GAAP results and cash flow. Similarly, tariff exposure is resurfacing as a meaningful P&L factor for manufacturers, as shown by Caterpillar’s revised Q4 tariff estimate.

Third, software and services firms in the payroll and HR stack continue to trade on guidance quality rather than headline beats. ADP’s beat-but-guide story underscores how growth proofs and margin cadence matter in a market moving toward stable rates and selective monetary easing. Finally, margin recovery stories such as Flowserve and ExlService (NASDAQ:EXLS) point to cost discipline and aftermarket leverage as key differentiators this quarter.

Winners & laggards: where to look within names and sub-industries

Winners

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) — Benefiting from non-residential and data-center power demand. Q3 revenue beat and a $39.8 billion backlog reported in commentary show order visibility. Short-term risk: tariff headwinds of $650M–$800M in Q4 that compress margins. Long-term: durable power equipment demand that extends beyond construction cycles.
Flowserve (NYSE:FLS) — One of the quarter’s biggest positive surprises. Adjusted EPS of $0.90 and improved margins signaled operational leverage. The company raised guidance and announced strategic divestitures, removing asbestos liabilities and improving quality of earnings.
Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) — Large revenue beat (about $519M) and profit upside. Growth is concentrated in on-site power and hydrogen partnerships, giving the company strong exposure to decarbonization capex.

Laggards

Boeing (NYSE:BA) — Revenue strength masks a large program charge. The $4.9 billion 777X charge and delivery push to 2027 deepen short-term earnings pain and maintain cash-flow and execution risk. Investors will watch certification milestones closely.
Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) — Beat on earnings and revenue, but guidance for the next quarter disappointed, producing a roughly 5% share decline. The Pequity acquisition is strategically sensible, but near-term growth expectations were reset lower by management’s guide.
Generac (NASDAQ:GNRC) — Sales fell about 5% in a weak outage season; management revised its outlook. The company’s long-term data-center push remains attractive, but seasonality and weather exposures can blunt near-term results.

What smart money is watching next

Certification milestones and cash-flow reports at Boeing (NYSE:BA): investors will focus on further 777X test and FAA updates and any revisions to delivery schedules through 2026–2027.
Tariff sensitivity and backlog conversion at Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT): monitor Q4 guidance for the $650M–$800M tariff estimate and read-throughs on margin recovery as backlog converts to revenue.
Guidance cadence at ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) and results from Pequity integration: look for management commentary on cross-selling and revenue synergies during upcoming calls and the next quarterly guide for signs of margin leverage.

Closing take-away

Earnings season is re-pricing the industrial complex around two axes: where revenue is tied to newer, technology-driven infrastructure (data centers, hydrogen, on-site power) and where legacy program execution and tariffs create headline risk. Companies that show clear margin recovery and recurring revenue from mission-critical power systems (for example, Caterpillar and Bloom Energy) gained credibility this quarter. By contrast, firms with concentrated program risk and uncertain guides (Boeing, ADP) faced immediate revaluation. For investors, the single most important insight is to separate durable demand pools—data-center power, aftermarket, and subscription services—from items that remain one-off or execution-dependent, then watch guidance and near-term catalysts closely for evidence of durable earnings conversion.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Lena Rowley

Lena Rowley spent thirteen years in supply chain and factory operations before turning to markets writing. Her beat encompasses order books, backlogs, labor availability, and capacity utilization across the manufacturing, aerospace, and transportation sectors. At Trade Engine she translates PMIs, build rates, and network updates into earnings implications, focusing on margin cadence and cash conversion. Her reporting has appeared in trade outlets and she speaks at logistics forums on bottlenecks and nearshoring. Readers can expect cycle maps that show how inventories clear and when pricing power flips from buyers to sellers. Lena rides the rails when she can, logging firsthand notes that inform her coverage of intermodal flows and freight demand.